elcome to another crypto market outlook for the 7th of April!
In this edition, we'll delve into major assets such as US500, DXY, Gold, Bitcoin, and Ethereum, highlighting critical levels and potential trade setups.
From Bitcoin rejecting the $70,000 resistance, to Ethereum maintaining a narrow range, and the Fear & Greed Index signaling 'Greed' for an entire week, this article covers it all.
Are you ready?
Today, we will cover the following topics:
- Market Heatmap and Fear and Greed Index
- US500, DXY and Gold Analysis
- USDT.D, Bitcoin and Ethereum Analysis
- Quotes / Advices
- Closing Remarks
Market Heatmap and Fear and Greed Index
To initiate my research, I delved into the analysis by examining the market heatmap, which provided a comprehensive overview of the entire cryptocurrency market.
After being rejected at the $70,000 resistance, BTC has shown bearish momentum with relatively lower volatility compared to the previous week.
This bearish movement got reflected on the entire crypto market, as we can see a mixture of bearish and bullish trends, with BTC down by -3.21% and ETH by -5.29%.
The Fear & Greed Index has shown a mixture of "Extreme Greed" and “Greed” signals this week, indicating that traders are still optimistic but not with the same intensity as before.
This is quite normal after a massive surge.
US500, DXY and Gold analysis
We consistently monitor the US500 index to assess the current market sentiment. This practice is crucial because the cryptocurrency market often exhibits a significant correlation with the stock market, and this interconnection can impact its fluctuations.
The US500 remains overall bullish from a long-term perspective, trading around the upper limit of the blue wedge pattern, indicating an overbought condition.
While the bulls maintain dominance, we expect a continuation towards the $5375 - $5500 resistance zone.
In the 4-hour timeframe, according to our analysis from last week, the bears have taken control after breaking below the rising channel and the last major low at $5180.
As a result, the momentum has shifted from bullish to bearish, with US500 trading within the descending wedge pattern outlined in blue.
We consistently monitor the DXY - USD Index as part of our routine analysis. This is crucial because the value of nearly all assets, including BTC/USD, is closely tied to the USD, which serves as the benchmark currency in the financial market.
According to our previous analysis, DXY was rejected at the $105 resistance level and traded lower.
For the bulls to maintain long-term control, a breakout above the $105 resistance is required.
As anticipated, DXY was rejected at the upper boundary of the blue wedge pattern and traded lower.
Currently, DXY is hovering near the lower boundary of the wedge, prompting us to anticipate a bullish response, particularly upon breaking above the last major high marked in orange at $104.5.
Gold maintains an overall bullish outlook from a macro perspective, and we anticipate a continuation towards the upper blue and brown trendlines, as well as the $2500 round number.
In the 4-hour timeframe, medium-term control will be maintained by the bulls as long as trading remains within the rising orange channel.
A breach below the $2300 support level would signify a short-term shift in momentum, with the bears potentially taking control for a correction movement towards the lower orange trendline.
USDT.D, Bitcoin and Ethereum analysis
As a standard practice, I begin my analysis with USDT.D as it serves as a critical indicator of traders' sentiment. USDT.D provides valuable insights into whether traders are optimistic, signaling increased investment in cryptocurrencies, or pessimistic, indicating a shift towards stablecoins.
USDT.D bounced back after rejecting the 4% support zone, yet it remains within a narrow range, indicating a flat correction within the falling orange channel.
In the 4-hour timeframe, in line with our previous analysis, the bulls took control following the break above the previous major high at 4.18%.
As long as the 4.18% level holds, we anticipate a continuation towards the major structure highlighted in blue at 4.66%.
As expected in our previous analysis, BTC broke above the previous high in orange at $66,450 and traded higher.
Currently, BTC is hovering around the upper boundary of the symmetrical triangle and near the $70,000 round number.
For the bulls to maintain control from a medium-term perspective, a break above the $70,000 is necessary.
Short-term control will remain with the bulls as long as BTC trades within the rising orange channel.
In parallel, if the last major low in orange at $67,900 mark is broken downward, we will expect the beginning of the bearish correction phase towards the lower red trendline.
As mentioned last week, if the last low at $3430 is breached downward, the bears would take control.
Currently, ETH is retesting the $3430 structure, suggesting a potential continuation of bearish momentum.
The bears will establish control upon breaking below the $3333 major low marked in orange.
However, ETH still has the potential to trade higher within the $3500 - $3600 resistance zone.
Quotes / Advices
In crypto trading, it's essential to protect your investments by cutting losses short.
Try setting stop-loss orders to automatically sell your assets if they reach a predetermined price.
Another essential strategy is to define exit points based on your risk tolerance and stick to them.
Don't forget to diversify your investments and manage risks wisely by not putting too much of your capital into a single trade.
Closing Remarks
In summary, the cryptocurrency market is in a consolidation phase, with BTC trading between $68,500 and $71,600, showing mixed trends.
The US500 index appears bullish, aiming for $5500 with support at $5180.
While DXY maintains a bullish direction towards $105, Gold faces resistance at $2225.
USDT.D's rejection of support suggests a potential upward trend towards 5%.
Bitcoin is stabilizing within the range of $68,500 - $71,600, open to a shift towards $50,000 or $71,600.
Ethereum's recovery above $3680 indicates a bullish trend, backed by support at $3200.
