Welcome to another crypto market outlook for the 23rd of August!
After Jerome Powell hinted that the FED will cut interest rates in September, the market has been going crazy! Optimism is higher than ever, making August a bullish month again after last week’s bearish tone.
Today, we will cover the following topics:
– Market Heatmap and Fear and Greed Index
– US500 and DXY
– USDT.D, Bitcoin and Ethereum Analysis
– Quotes / Advices
– Closing Remarks
Market Heatmap and Fear and Greed Index
The 7-day crypto heatmap is almost entirely bullish, with ETH leading the charge at +6% and most altcoins following suit. BTC, however, recorded another bearish week — a strong signal that altcoin season is still ON.
The Fear and Greed Index continues to signal “Greed,” climbing to a new weekly high of 60.
US500 and DXY analysis
As per our latest market outlook, the US500 remains extremely bullish, signaling optimism across both the stock and crypto markets.
As long as the $6,000 round number holds as support, the path forward looks set to continue upward!
For the bulls to stay in control and for the US500 to record a new ATH next week, a break above the last major high at $6,490 (marked in blue) is needed.
In the meantime, the US500 could still dip lower for a correction toward the lower bound of the rising orange wedge.
After Powell’s speech, the DXY weakened again this week, continuing to hold below the $100 resistance as highlighted last week.
From a long-term perspective, we still expect further downside toward the $96 support level, a scenario that favors both the stock and crypto markets.
If the last low at $97.65 (marked in red) breaks downward, the $96 support level will come into play. In the meantime, bulls could still step in short-term to test the supply zone at $98.5.
USDT.D, Bitcoin, and Ethereum analysis
As per our latest USDT.D update, it rejected the upper bound of the orange falling channel and has been trading lower since.
Currently, USDT.D is stuck in a narrow range between the 4% support and the upper orange trendline. A breakout on either side will define the next major move in the crypto market.
After breaking below the last low at 4.34% (marked in red), momentum on USDT.D shifted from bullish back to bearish; which, in turn, is bullish for the crypto market.
As long as this low holds, further downside on USDT.D is expected, supporting continued upside for crypto.
As per our latest BTC update, price respected the $110,000–$112,500 support zone (marked in red) perfectly.
As long as the lower bound of the rising blue channel holds, the overall bias remains bullish for BTC and the broader crypto market.
For the bulls to stay in control in the medium term and ignite the next big bullish leg upward, a break above the last major high at $117,500 (marked in green) is needed.
In the meantime, BTC could still trade lower for another correction phase to retest the demand created yesterday at $113,000.
As per our latest ETH analysis, price respected the $4,000–$4,100 support zone perfectly and then surged as if there were no tomorrow.
For the bulls to maintain long-term control, however, a break above the $5,000 round number is required.
Bulls will remain in control in the short term as long as the last minor low at $4,655 (marked in orange) holds.
If $4,655 breaks downward, a bearish correction toward the $4,400 structure (marked in red) would be expected.
Quotes / Advices
I believe in analysis and not forecasting.
~ Nicolas Darvas
Closing Remarks
In summary, Powell’s rate-cut signal has fueled strong optimism across markets, with August shaping up bullish after last week’s dip.
The crypto heatmap highlights ETH’s strength while BTC lags, hinting at ongoing altcoin season.
US500 remains firmly bullish above $6,000, while DXY weakness supports risk-on sentiment.
USDT.D breakdown keeps the bias positive, BTC holds its channel support with $117,500 as the breakout level, and ETH continues to shine above $4,000 with $5,000 as the key long-term hurdle.
