Welcome to another crypto market outlook for the 25th of January!
While BTC has been holding its ground above $100,000, altcoins appear to be weakening and are currently approaching a significant support or demand zone. Could this signal that the altcoin season is approaching, or is there more pain ahead? Let’s find out together.
Today, we will cover the following topics:
– Market Heatmap and Fear and Greed Index
– US500, DXY and Gold Analysis
– USDT.D, Bitcoin and Ethereum Analysis
– Quotes / Advices
– Closing Remarks
Market Heatmap and Fear and Greed Index
This week has been volatile for BTC, closing slightly bearish. In line with the bearish market conditions, altcoins hit new lows, with XRP down over 5% and ADA dropping by 13%.
Despite the bearish momentum, traders remain greedy and optimistic, anticipating 2025 to be bullish based on previous cycles. This highlights the resilience of crypto traders and their unwavering “diamond hands.”
US500, DXY, and Gold analysis
As mentioned in our last market outlook, the US500 remains overall bullish, indicating that US stocks are still performing well, with Trump leading the country.
With the US500 staying bullish, a move toward the upper bound of the orange and brown wedge patterns is anticipated.
The bulls are likely to remain in control in the short term unless the recent low at $6,060 is broken downward.
A bullish stock market is generally positive for crypto, as it reflects overall investor optimism.
After being extremely bullish for five consecutive weeks, the DXY is finally entering a correction phase. This is healthy for crypto, as a general rule of thumb suggests that a weaker DXY often signals bullish for all assets.
In the short term, on the 4-hour timeframe, the correction phase on the DXY is likely to continue as long as it remains within the falling channel marked in red.
However, the $106–$107 range is a strong support zone, so we anticipate the bulls to regain control within the next two weeks.
As noted in our previous Gold analysis, it is currently approaching its all-time high and the $2,800 round number.
For the bulls to stay in control from a macro perspective, a break above $2,800 is crucial, as it would signal a continuation toward the $3,000 round number.
Gold has been bullish in the medium term as well, trading within the rising channel marked in red.
The bears are likely to take control for a correction only if the last low, marked in red at $2,735, is broken downward.
USDT.D, Bitcoin, and Ethereum analysis
As per our last USDT.D analysis, it is still hovering within a critical support zone between 3.75% and 4%.
If the 3.75% support is broken downward, it could signal the start of a long-term bullish wave in the crypto market.
Meanwhile, as long as USDT.D remains above 3.75%, bearish pressure is likely to persist for altcoins.
The latest range in USDT.D has formed an inverse head and shoulders pattern.
For the bullish phase to be activated in USDT.D, a break above the neckline, marked in green at 4.05%, is required.
BTC has been outperforming the entire market, remaining stable within a range while altcoins continue to trade lower.
For the next long-term bullish wave to begin, potentially leading to a new all-time high, a break above the $110,000 round number is required.
In the short term, BTC has been bullish, trading within a wide rising channel marked in orange.
As it nears the lower bound of the channel, we anticipate bullish pressure to resume, driving it back toward the upper bounds of the red and orange channels.
ETH remains bearish in the medium term, trading within the falling wedge pattern marked in red, as highlighted in our last market overview.
The longer ETH consolidates near the upper bound of the wedge and the $3,500 level, the more it indicates a potential buildup for an upside breakout. Altcoin season might be closer than you think!
In the short term, on the 1-hour timeframe, ETH has been consolidating within a large range, forming an ascending triangle marked in orange.
According to textbook patterns, ascending triangles typically break to the upside, signaling the start of a bullish continuation phase.
Quotes / Advices
Every trader has strengths and weaknesses. Some are good at holding their winners but may hold their losers for too long.
~ Michael Marcus
Closing Remarks
In summary, BTC showed resilience despite bearish momentum, with altcoins like XRP and ADA hitting new lows. Traders remain optimistic, anticipating a bullish 2025, as reflected by the Fear and Greed Index.
US500 continues its bullish trajectory, while the DXY entered a correction phase, favoring crypto market optimism.
Gold is approaching its all-time high, with $2,800 as a critical resistance level.
USDT.D is trading near crucial support levels, signaling potential market shifts.
Bitcoin remains stable within a range, requiring a break above $110,000 for a new all-time high.
Ethereum, though bearish medium-term, shows signs of a potential breakout, hinting at an approaching altcoin season.
