ecent Data shows that After obtaining the result of the poll conducted by CNN-SRSS on October 31, Kamala Harris had better chances to win in Wisconsin and Michigan, improving by 5 and, respectively, 6 percent. That said, her overall election winning probability increased to 39.6%, which was still lower than Trump’s approximate 60.3% in the prediction markets.
Current State-by-State Picture
Furthermore, Trump currently leads in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada band has a 14-point lead in Pennsylvania. Galaxy Research states Trump is now leading in 18 different locations although in some the gap is rapidly closing. The survey reveals the race narrowing down with Trump losing the lead in 13 of 18 locations examined.
Market Activity Surge
In October, Polymarket achieved tremendous growth, with individual traders amounting to approximateoly 220,000 which is 174% higher than the previous months, a huge increase. The monthly trading volume reached $2.3 billion, which is 353% more than in the previous month. Election related betting remained the most popular market throughout this period and contributed to 85 % of total turnover.
Market Integrity Discussion
There are recent worries about this area, specifically, researchers from Chaos Labs identified wash trading in the platform. Still, other critics of this site as well as other prediction markets have been accused of manipulation by outsiders, though industry insiders such as Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour have come out to defend the purity of the markets.
PA could hold key to 2024 election result
The important things to consider before the election results. On the one hand, it is revealed that Harris is able to perform successful in some of the swing states and on the other hand, the importance of Pennsylvania is increasing as it is now one of the decisive factors in terms of the 2024 presidential election. The increase in betting market activity is significant to show how much people are interested in this election, and how closely traders are observing changes in probabilities of swing states.
