Welcome to another crypto market outlook for the 13th of October!
The crypto market is showing signs of recovery, with BTC breaking above $60K and ETH consolidating. What will the remaining half of October look like? Below are my inputs.
Today, we will cover the following topics:
- Market Heatmap and Fear and Greed Index
- US500, DXY and Gold Analysis
- USDT.D, Bitcoin and Ethereum Analysis
- Quotes / Advices
- Closing Remarks
Market Heatmap and Fear and Greed Index
Following a challenging two-week decline, the crypto market is starting to bounce back, as BTC climbs above the critical 60k mark, signaling renewed strength and optimism.
BTC surged by 1.1%, followed closely by ETH with a 0.8% rise, which has shifted the overall sentiment back to bullish. Many altcoins have surged in a parabolic manner as a result.
It is always healthy for the crypto market to have neutral sentiment before a reversal or continuation takes place. This is usually known as an accumulation or distribution phase.
This exact phase will show you the real strength of an asset. Is it surging or dipping without any biased sentiment?
US500, DXY and Gold analysis
The US500 continues to reflect the broader stock market and remains evidently bullish, moving within the ascending channel we discussed in last week's outlook.
As long as optimism prevails, further upward momentum toward the $6,000 level is anticipated.
Optimism is expected to continue unless the recent low at $5,675 is broken to the downside.
In that case, a significant correction toward the $5,500 demand zone could occur, which would likely be detrimental to the stock market.
The DXY surprised everyone last week by rejecting the $100 level, despite fundamental news suggesting further bearish pressure.
With DXY strength persisting, a move toward the $104.65 mark and the upper red trendline is possible.
In line with your previous DXY update, it reached the $103.13 level as anticipated. For bullish momentum to continue, a break above this structure is necessary.
On the other hand, if the $102.28 level, marked in red, is broken to the downside, a bearish correction toward the weekly support may be likely.
Gold remains a powerhouse, but it has yet to break through the $2,700 resistance level and the upper brown trendline, which is acting as a macro overbought zone.
Technically, Gold has been giving the market a breather as it enters a correction phase within the descending red channel.
As long as it remains confined within this channel, further decline toward the $2,565 demand zone is expected.
USDT.D, Bitcoin and Ethereum analysis
As mentioned in our last market outlook edition, USDT.D remains stable, hovering within a broad range between 5.47% and 5.94%.
If USDT.D continues to be contained within this range, we expect a bearish week ahead for the crypto market, as USDT.D is approaching the lower bound of its range.
For a bearish week in the crypto market to be confirmed, USDT.D needs to break above its last high at 5.64%.
In the meantime, the short-term sentiment will remain bullish, as USDT.D could still trade lower to test the 4-hour support and structure marked in blue.
BTC is still trading within the falling channel, as noted in our last BTC chart update.
For bullish momentum to take hold in the medium term, BTC needs to break above the channel and the last major high at $64,500.
In parallel, if the last low marked in blue at $62,330 is breached, a bearish correction toward the $60,000 zone is likely to follow.
For now, BTC is trading in a "no edge" zone, so it’s prudent to remain patient and avoid impulsive actions.
ETH has also been consolidating within an ascending triangle pattern. According to textbook definitions, the ascending triangle is typically a bullish formation.
For the bullish scenario to be confirmed, ETH needs to break above the upper boundary of the triangle, which would mean a break above the $2,525 level.
On the flip side, if the last low at $2,445 is breached, a move toward the lower boundary of the 4H triangle is likely.
In the meantime, we wait!
Quotes / Advices
Market fluctuations are your friend, not enemy.
~ Warren Buffet
Closing Remarks
In summary, the crypto market is showing signs of recovery after two weeks of downturn, with BTC breaking back above the $60,000 psychological level and ETH following suit.
US500 remains bullish as long as optimism holds, while the DXY and Gold face mixed signals with potential corrections looming.
USDT.D remains in a critical range, suggesting caution ahead for the crypto market.
Both BTC and ETH are navigating key technical patterns, with BTC in a falling channel and ETH in an ascending triangle, awaiting significant breakouts to confirm the next moves.
Overall, patience is advised as these markets remain in "no edge" zones for now.
