Welcome to another crypto market outlook for the 17th of November!
This week is a classic follow-up to Bitcoin's parabolic surge last week. Do you know why? Because altcoins are going crazy with massive pumps. But how long will this rally last before the correction phase kicks in? Let’s dive in and find out.
Today, we will cover the following topics:
- Market Heatmap and Fear and Greed Index
- US500, DXY and Gold Analysis
- USDT.D, Bitcoin and Ethereum Analysis
- Quotes / Advices
- Closing Remarks
Market Heatmap and Fear and Greed Index
When BTC gets stuck within a narrow range after a big impulse, it creates room for altcoins to surge. That’s precisely what we experienced this past week.
As altcoins, especially OGs like HBAR, XRP, and ETC, surged in a parabolic manner, the Fear and Greed Index signaled "Extreme Greed" throughout the entire week.
US500, DXY and Gold analysis
As anticipated in our previous US500 outlook, the index encountered resistance at the 6,000 mark and declined by over 2.5%, impacting the entire stock market.
For a medium-term bullish trend to reestablish, the index needs to break the 6,000 level.
As evident from the 4-hour chart, bearish dominance was confirmed after the price broke below the previous low highlighted in blue.
If bearish pressure persists, a continuation toward the lower boundary of the red wedge and the structure marked in orange at $5,715 is anticipated.
The DXY range has been very clear from a market structure perspective.
This week, DXY is approaching the upper boundary of the range around $106.5 to $107.5.
As long as the $107.5 resistance level holds, the bears have a high probability of pushing the price back within the range.
For bearish control to be confirmed, a break below the red trendline and the previous low at $106.15 is required.
If this occurs, a correction toward the $104.5 structure is expected.
In our previous gold analysis, we noted that the price hit resistance at the $2,800 level, leading to a medium-term correction.
On Friday, gold approached the lower boundary of the ascending wedge (highlighted in orange) and the $2,500 mark.
If the $2,450 support level holds, we anticipate a bullish resurgence, potentially initiating another significant upward movement.
For the bulls to regain full control and initiate a bullish phase, a break above the red structure at $2,620 is necessary.
USDT.D, Bitcoin and Ethereum analysis
USDT.D is approaching the 4% support level mentioned in our previous market outlook.
As long as it remains above 3.75%, there is potential for bullish momentum in USDT.D, which could lead to a bearish correction in the cryptocurrency market.
For a momentum shift in USDT.D, a break above the recent 4-hour high at 4.5% is necessary.
Until then, USDT.D is likely to remain bearish, potentially declining toward the 3.75% level.
BTC is at a critical juncture as it approaches the upper boundary of its range, forming a channel.
If bullish momentum persists and Bitcoin breaks through this upper bound, the next major resistance level to watch is the psychological milestone of $100,000.
The buyers will remain in full control and continue to show greed unless both the blue and red trendlines, along with the last low at $87,750, are broken downward.
In that scenario, a correction toward the $82,000 support level becomes highly likely.
As mentioned in last week’s ETH update, it broke above the $3,000 mark, which is now acting as support.
Therefore, as ETH approaches the $2,800–$3,000 range, we will be watching for trend-following long opportunities.
As long as ETH remains within the red falling channel, further downside is expected toward the lower boundary of the channel and the $3,000 round number.
Conversely, if the previous high at $3,220 is broken to the upside, a bullish reversal toward the $3,500 resistance level becomes likely.
Quotes / Advices
I know where I’m getting out before I get in.
~Bruce Kovner
Closing Remarks
In summary, Bitcoin’s consolidation created room for altcoins like HBAR, XRP, and ETC to surge, with the Fear and Greed Index signaling "Extreme Greed" all week.
US500 faced resistance at 6,000, leading to a decline; DXY approached a critical range high, while Gold held near key support levels with potential for bullish momentum.
USDT.D showed bearish momentum but has bullish potential above key levels.
BTC’s critical zone suggests a possible move to $100,000 if bullish control persists, while ETH remains within a falling channel, with potential for a bullish reversal above $3,220.
