Welcome to another crypto market outlook for the 4th of August!
From BTC dipping hard to ETH reaching a new monthly low, while the Fear & Greed Index shifting from ‘Greed’ to ‘Fear’ again, this article covers it all.
Are you ready?
Today, we will cover the following topics:
- Market Heatmap and Fear and Greed Index
- US500, DXY and Gold Analysis
- USDT.D, Bitcoin and Ethereum Analysis
- Quotes / Advices
- Closing Remarks
Market Heatmap and Fear and Greed Index
From Mt. Gox returning BTC to creditors to a potential war on the horizon in the Middle East, BTC dipped by over 1.6%.
Altcoins, including ETH, mimicked BTC's movement, closing the week negative with losses ranging from -4% to as high as -20%.
This week, the Fear and Greed Index shifted once again from “Greed” to “Fear,” with the meter dropping swiftly from 71 to as low as 34.
The initial short dip was extended into a larger one as leveraged longs were liquidated.
US500, DXY and Gold analysis
I regularly check the US500 to gauge the international market. This routine is useful since the crypto and stock markets are highly correlated.
As per our previous market outlook, the US500 has rejected the upper bound of the rising broadening wedge pattern marked in blue.
This short-term correction might extend into a longer-term one if the previous all-time high at $5,300 is broken downward.
On the 4-hour timeframe, as expected, the bears took over after breaking below the highlighted previous low at $5,573.
As long as the lower red and orange trendlines hold, the US500 will remain bullish long-term and can still trade higher to retest the $5,500 mark.
The DXY is still overall bearish from a medium-term perspective, trading within a large range bounded by the giant symmetrical triangle marked in red.
Lately, it has been approaching the lower bound of the triangle and the $102.5 demand zone, so we expect the bulls to step in as long as the support holds.
On the 4-hour timeframe, the DXY has been losing strength for two consecutive weeks, trading within the falling blue channel.
As it approaches the lower bound of the channel, we will be looking for short-term bullish control.
Gold is still respecting our analysis from the previous market outlook. It is rejecting the upper bound of the orange and red channels.
For the bulls to take over from a macro perspective, a break above the $2,500 round number is needed.
On the 4-hour timeframe, as long as the $2,415 previous major low holds, the bulls will remain in control.
In parallel, if $2,415 is broken downward, further bearish control would be possible.
USDT.D, Bitcoin and Ethereum analysis
As expected in our previous market outlook, USDT.D rejected the 4.58% support level and the lower orange trendline.
Currently, USDT.D is hovering around a massive resistance zone. For the bulls to remain in control, a break above the 5.6% mark is needed.
In parallel, if the lower bound of the resistance zone at 5.33% is broken downward, we expect the bears to take over for a deep correction toward the previous high at 5.01%.
This would be positive for the crypto market, as a bearish USDT.D implies a bullish crypto market.
As per our previous market overview, BTC has rejected the upper bound of the orange channel and the $70,000 resistance level.
This week, BTC also broke below the $63,500 mark, so the bearish pressure persisted.
On the 4-hour timeframe, BTC is hovering around a strong support zone of $58,000 to $60,000.
For the bulls to take over again, a break above the upper orange trendline is needed.
Meanwhile, BTC can still dip within the support zone.
ETH has been bearish for almost three weeks now.
However, it is currently hovering around a massive support zone of $2,750 to $2,900.
As long as this support holds, we expect bullish pressure soon.
For the bulls to take over again in the short term and push toward the upper bound of the orange channel, a break above the last major high at $3,020, marked in blue, is needed.
Quotes / Advices
Luck is preparation meeting opportunity.
~ Oprah
Closing Remarks
In summary, BTC dipped over 1.6% due to factors like Mt. Gox returning BTC to creditors and potential Middle East tensions.
The Fear and Greed Index dropped sharply from 71 to 34 as leveraged longs were liquidated.
US500 saw a short-term correction but remains bullish long-term if key trendlines hold.
DXY is bearish medium-term but may see short-term bullish control near support levels.
Gold continues to follow previous analysis, needing a break above $2,500 for macro bullish control.
USDT.D is at a major resistance zone; a break above 5.6% is crucial for bullish control.
BTC is around a strong support zone of $58,000 to $60,000 after breaking below $63,500.
ETH is near a support zone of $2,750 to $2,900, with potential bullish pressure if this support holds.
