Welcome to another crypto market outlook for the 1st of September!
From BTC retracing all of its gains from last week, to USDT.D hovering at the upper bound of its range, and the Fear & Greed Index back to “Fear”, this article explains it all.
Today, we will cover the following topics:
- Market Heatmap and Fear and Greed Index
- US500, DXY and Gold Analysis
- USDT.D, Bitcoin and Ethereum Analysis
- Quotes / Advices
- Closing Remarks
Market Heatmap and Fear and Greed Index
Even though the US is expected to start decreasing interest rates soon, the bullish sentiment didn’t last long.
BTC has retraced all of its gains from last week's surge, dropping by -1.41%, while ETH experienced an even bigger loss of -10.36%.
This week’s dip in the crypto market has shifted the Fear and Greed Index back to Fear, with a new low as the meter recorded a score of 26.
US500, DXY and Gold analysis
Always check the US500 and the Dollar Index before analyzing any other asset to get a sense of the overall direction and market sentiment. Thank me later.
No major updates for the US500 since our last market outlook.
It has been trading uneventfully around the supply zone marked in red, so we are still expecting bearish pressure soon.
On the 4H, if the last low at $5,545 is broken to the downside, we expect the bears to take control and drive the price toward the lower bound of the daily orange channel.
In the meantime, we will trade within the range until it eventually breaks either upward or downward.
The DXY is still trading in the middle of nowhere, between our $100 support level and the $103 supply zone.
A wise decision would be to wait for the price to approach one of these rejection zones before speculating on a reversal.
From a short-term perspective on the 1-hour timeframe, the DXY will remain bullish as long as it is trading within the rising channel marked in orange.
If the channel breaks downward, we expect the bears to take over, signaling another bearish impulse toward the $100 round number.
All eyes are on Gold, specifically at the $2,500 round number.
The $2,500 level is not just any level; it is the intersection of the upper bounds of the 4H, daily, weekly, and monthly channels.
If $2,500 is broken to the upside, it could indicate that the war is escalating worldwide.
In the medium term, I am not surprised that Gold's chart looks very similar to the US500 chart.
The bulls will remain in full control unless the last low at $2,471.5 is broken to the downside.
USDT.D, Bitcoin and Ethereum analysis
As per our last USDT.D update, it is currently hovering around the upper bound of its range at 5.94%.
As long as this rejection remains intact, we expect the bears to take over soon, which would be positive for the crypto market.
In the short term, USDT.D is now forming a clean wedge pattern marked in red. For the bearish reversal pattern to be activated, we need a break below the last low at 5.77%.
In parallel, if the 5.94% level is broken to the upside, further pain in the crypto market could be expected.
Referring to our last market outlook, BTC is holding strong above the $58,000 support level, unlike most altcoins.
As long as the $58,000 level remains intact, the bulls can still shift the momentum in their favor once again.
For the buyers to finally kick in and start the next bullish leg, a break above the last minor high at $61,000 is required.
All eyes are on BTC now because it's a make-or-break zone. It’s a battle between the bears and bulls to either break above $61,000 or drop below $58,000.
ETH is also holding the $2,400 - $2,500 support firmly. If the $2,400 level is broken to the downside, a free fall toward the next support at $2,000 - $2,100 could be triggered.
No one party has taken control just yet. Similar to BTC, it’s now a battle to either reclaim the $2,610 structure or lose the $2,400 support, which would signal the next potential bullish or bearish movement.
Quotes / Advices
An investment in knowledge pays the best interest.
~ Benjamin Franklin
Closing Remarks
In summary, despite expectations of interest rate cuts in the US, bullish sentiment quickly faded, with BTC and ETH both experiencing notable losses.
The Fear and Greed Index dropped to 26, signaling increased fear in the market.
US500 remains in a range, with bearish pressure likely if key levels are breached.
DXY continues to trade between support and resistance zones, while Gold eyes the critical $2,500 level, which could indicate broader geopolitical tensions if breached.
USDT.D hovers at the upper bound of its range, with a potential bearish reversal if key support levels break.
BTC remains strong above $58,000, but it faces a pivotal battle between $58,000 and $61,000.
Similarly, ETH is holding firm at $2,400-$2,500, with critical levels in focus for determining the next directional move.
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