Welcome to another crypto market outlook for the 14th of July!
In this edition, we will dive into major assets such as US500, DXY, Gold, Bitcoin, and Ethereum, marking its key levels and trade setups.
From Bitcoin rejecting the $60,000 mark to Ethereum surging after bouncing off support and the Fear & Greed Index signaling ‘Extreme Fear’ for the first time in months, this article covers it all.
Are you ready?
Today, we will cover the following topics:
- Market Heatmap and Fear and Greed Index
- US500, DXY and Gold Analysis
- USDT.D, Bitcoin and Ethereum Analysis
- Quotes / Advices
- Closing Remarks
Market Heatmap and Fear and Greed Index
To start my research, I always keep an eye on the market heatmap, which provides a clear overview of the entire crypto market.
After rejecting the $56,000 support level, BTC surged by over +2%, and ETH followed almost the same path, closing the week bullish by +1%.
This bullish correction in BTC was mirrored across the entire crypto market, with most of altcoins closing the week bullish.
This week, the Fear & Greed Index has signaled “Extreme Fear” for the first time in months.
This deep dip is unusual during the summer, especially this year, as there are many fundamentals driving the market down.
US500, DXY and Gold analysis
We regularly check the US500 to get a feeling about the current market sentiment. This routine is important because the cryptocurrency market is highly positively correlated with the stock market.
As per our previous market outlook, the US500 is still bullish from both long-term and medium-term perspectives, trading within the rising channel and wedge pattern marked in orange and blue, respectively.
In the 4-hour timeframe, for the bears to take over and start a correction phase towards the $5,500 round number, a break below the last low at $5,573 is needed.
Meanwhile, the US500 remains overall bullish and can still trade higher to hit new all-time highs.
We also check the DXY - USD Index as part of our trading plan. This provides us with valuable information about the current market situation, as the value of almost all assets, including crypto, is negatively correlated with the USD.
As per our previous market outlook, DXY has been trading within a wide range in the shape of a descending triangle marked in orange.
Currently, DXY is hovering around the lower bound of the range, so we expect the bulls to kick in soon as long as the $103.87 mark holds.
In the 4-hour timeframe, as per our previous market outlook, DXY rejected the $105.23 structure and has been bearish for the entire week.
For the bulls to take over and shift the momentum again, a break above the upper green trendline and the last major high at $104.55 is needed, which would negatively affect the crypto market.
This week, Gold rejected the lower bound of the flat rising channel marked in red.
Currently, Gold is approaching the previous major highs, so we expect the bears to take over soon.
In the 4-hour timeframe, Gold has been trading within the rising channel marked in blue.
The bulls will remain in control unless the last low marked in blue at $2,390 is broken downward.
USDT.D, Bitcoin and Ethereum analysis
When it comes to crypto, I always begin my analysis by checking USDT.D. It serves as an indicator of traders' sentiment, showing whether traders are optimistic, buying crypto assets, or pessimistic, shifting to stablecoins.
As per our previous outlook, USDT.D has been retesting the support zone and the lower bound of the rising wedge pattern marked in red.
As long as the lower red trendline holds, we expect the bulls to kick in soon and start the next impulse phase.
In the 4-hour timeframe, USDT.D has been in a correction phase, forming a falling wedge pattern marked in blue.
For the bulls to regain control, a break above the resistance zone marked in blue is needed.
Meanwhile, USDT.D remains bearish and can still trade lower.
This week, BTC has been trading within a key resistance zone between $58,000 and $60,000.
For the bulls to take over and shift the momentum again, a break above the upper red trendline and the $60,000 round number is needed.
In parallel, if the last low marked in red at $57,900 is broken downward, a bearish continuation towards the $52,000 mark would be expected.
As per our previous market outlook, ETH rejected the $2,900 support and surged by over 15%.
However, ETH is still overall bearish in the medium term and is currently approaching the upper bound of the wedge pattern marked in blue.
In the 4-hour timeframe, ETH broke above our last major high at $3,018 and has been trading higher since then.
As long as the bulls remain in control, a movement towards the upper blue trendline and $3,300 is expected.
Quotes / Advices
I think investment psychology is by far the more important element, followed by risk control, with the least important consideration being the question of where you buy and sell.
~Tom Basso
Closing Remarks
In summary, BTC bounced back from the $56,000 support level, gaining over 2%, and ETH followed suit with a 1% increase, leading to a bullish week for many altcoins.
The Fear & Greed Index hit "Extreme Fear" for the first time in months, influenced by several factors impacting the market.
US500 index continues to show strength in both long-term and medium-term trends, trading within a rising channel and wedge pattern.
DXY has been in a bearish trend, but a break above $104.55 could shift this. Gold recently bounced off the lower bound of its rising channel, with expectations of a bearish move soon.
USDT.D indicates a potential bullish move if it breaks above the 5.45% mark.
BTC faces strong resistance between $58,000 and $60,000, needing a break above $60,000 for further gains.
ETH rose over 15% after rejecting the $2,900 support but still shows a bearish medium-term outlook.
