Welcome to another crypto market outlook for the 28th of July!
From BTC surging again to ETH remaining bearish, while the Fear & Greed Index signals ‘Greed’ for the entire week, this article covers it all.
Are you ready?
Today, we will cover the following topics:
- Market Heatmap and Fear and Greed Index
- US500, DXY and Gold Analysis
- USDT.D, Bitcoin and Ethereum Analysis
- Quotes / Advices
- Closing Remarks
Market Heatmap and Fear and Greed Index
After Donald J. Trump’s speech yesterday, BTC saw some action but ended the week almost at breakeven with a +0.44% gain.
ETH couldn't hold as BTC did and closed the week negative with a -1.52% loss. Most altcoins followed ETH's price action, closing the week negative as well.
After shifting from "Fear" to "Greed" last week, the Fear & Greed Index kept signaling “Greed” this entire week despite the dip.
US500, DXY and Gold analysis
I always check the US500 to get a feeling about the international market. This routine is helpful because the crypto market and stock market are highly correlated.
As per our previous market outlook, the US500 is still overall bullish as long as it is trading within the rising channel marked in orange.
After rejecting the upper blue and orange trendlines, US500 has been in a short-term bearish correction phase.
On the 4-hour timeframe, the bears maintained control after breaking below the $5,500 round number.
As long as the US500 is trading within the falling channel marked in blue, a continuation towards the lower blue and orange trendlines is expected.
I also keep an eye on DXY as the value of almost all assets, including crypto, is negatively correlated with the USD.
As per our previous market outlook, the DXY is still struggling around the lower bound of the falling channel highlighted in orange.
As long as the trendline holds, a bullish reversal towards the upper bound of the channel is expected.
On the 4-hour timeframe, for the bulls to shift the momentum and push towards the $105.1 structure, a break above the inverse head and shoulders neckline at $104.55 is needed.
This would negatively affect the crypto market.
After rejecting the $2,500 level and the upper trendlines, Gold has been bearish in the short term as part of a correction phase.
As Gold nears the lower bound of the channel, we will be looking for trend-following buy setups on lower timeframes.
On the 4-hour timeframe, Gold has been bearish, trading within the falling trendline in orange.
As long as the $2,400 level holds, a bearish continuation towards the $2,320 mark is expected.
USDT.D, Bitcoin and Ethereum analysis
For crypto, it is always a good practice to keep an eye on USDT.D, as it is shows if traders are optimistic or pessimistic.
USDT.D has been rejecting the 4.6% support level, indicating that a bearish correction for crypto is still on the horizon.
For the next bullish impulse movement to happen in crypto, a break below 4.6% is needed on USDT.D.
On the 4-hour timeframe, USDT.D has been hovering within a large inverse head and shoulders pattern.
We are now expecting the right shoulder to complete by pushing towards the 5.12% neckline.
BTC has been boring this week as it is still hovering within a narrow range between the $63,000 previous high and the upper bound of the channel.
As long as the $63,000 mark holds, BTC will remain bullish.
On the 4-hour timeframe, BTC has been trading within the rising wedge pattern marked in blue.
As it approaches the lower bound of the pattern, we will be looking for trend-following buy setups targeting the $70,000 round number.
ETH rejected the $3,500 - $3,600 resistance zone.
It would be awesome to see ETH retest the $3,000 round number, as it is an attractive zone to look for new buy setups at a discount.
As per our previous market outlook, ETH broke below the last major low at $3,360, indicating that the bears have taken over.
As long as the $3,360 mark holds, a bearish continuation towards the daily support is expected.
Quotes / Advices
Trade wars are good, and easy to win.
~ Donald Trump
Closing Remarks
In summary, BTC saw some action after Donald J. Trump’s speech but ended the week nearly at breakeven with a +0.44% gain.
The Fear & Greed Index remained in the “Greed” zone despite market dips.
The US500 remains bullish within a rising channel, despite a short-term bearish correction after rejecting upper trendlines., while DXY is struggling at the lower bound of a falling channel; a bullish reversal is expected if the trendline holds.
Gold has been bearish in the short term, approaching the lower bound of its channel, indicating potential buy setups on lower timeframes.
USDT.D has rejected the 4.6% support level, suggesting a bearish correction for crypto is likely. A break below 4.6% is needed for a bullish impulse in crypto.
BTC is trading within a rising wedge pattern and remains bullish as long as the $63,000 mark holds, while ETH broke below $3,360, with a bearish continuation expected towards daily support if the $3,360 level holds.
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