Welcome to another crypto market outlook for the 21st of July!
In this edition, we will go over the major assets, marking its key levels and trade setups.
From Bitcoin approaching the $70,000 round number to Ethereum rejecting the $3,500 resistance level and the Fear & Greed Index shifting from ‘Fear’ to ‘Greed’ within 2 days, this article covers it all.
Are you ready?
Today, we will cover the following topics:
- Market Heatmap and Fear and Greed Index
- US500, DXY and Gold Analysis
- USDT.D, Bitcoin and Ethereum Analysis
- Quotes / Advices
- Closing Remarks
Market Heatmap and Fear and Greed Index
To start my research, I always keep an eye on the market heatmap, which provides a clear overview of the entire crypto market.
This week has been uneventful so far. After breaking above the $65,000 mark, BTC has surged by 0.75%. ETH has also been quiet, closing the week slightly bullish with a gain of 0.08%.
This consolidation in BTC and ETH has led to explosive movements in a few altcoins like XRP, BNB, and AVAX, each surging by over 10%.
This week, the Fear & Greed Index has shifted from "Fear" to "Greed" within a couple of days.
We often see this rapid shift in momentum following an aggressive dip, which the crypto market experienced over the past two weeks.
US500, DXY and Gold analysis
I always check the US500 to get a feeling about the international market. This routine is helpful because the crypto market and stock market are highly correlated.
As per our previous market outlook, the US500 is rejecting the upper bound of the wedge pattern. Thus, it looks like a deeper bearish correction is about to start.
On the 4-hour timeframe, the bears have already taken over from a short-term perspective after breaking below our last major low marked in red at $5,573.
For the bears to maintain control, a break below the lower red trendline and the $5,500 round number is required.
Meanwhile, the US500 would remain bullish and could still reject the lower red trendline, resulting in a higher high.
I also keep an eye on DXY as the value of almost all assets, including crypto, is negatively correlated with the USD.
As per our previous market outlook, DXY has been bullish especially after rejecting the lower bound of the orange channel.
As long as the bulls hold, a continuation towards the $105 supply zone is expected.
On the 4-hour timeframe, for the bulls to maintain control, a break above the last major high marked in red at $104.5 is required.
Meanwhile, DXY would remain bearish and could still trade lower to retest the lower trendlines again.
As anticipated, Gold has rebounded from the upper bound of the red channel and dipped by over 3.3%.
As long as the bears hold, a deeper bearish correction towards the lower bound of the red channel around $2,300 is expected.
On the 4-hour timeframe, the bears have already taken over after breaking below our marked low at $2,450. For the bears to remain in control and push towards $2,300, a break below $2,390 is required.
Meanwhile, Gold could still reject the blue trendline, which is acting as a non-horizontal support, and trade higher.
USDT.D, Bitcoin and Ethereum analysis
For crypto, I always start by checking USDT.D.
USDT.D is a tool that shows if traders are optimistic, buying crypto assets, or pessimistic, shifting to stablecoins.
As per our previous outlook, USDT.D is still in a correction phase, trading within the rising channel marked in orange.
As USDT.D approaches the lower bound of the channel, we will expect the bulls to kick in.
On the 4-hour timeframe, USDT.D has been bearish from a medium-term standpoint, trading within the falling channel highlighted in blue.
If the last high at 4.9% is broken upward, a bullish reversal towards the 5.3% would be anticipated.
BTC maintained its bullish trend this week and is currently in a new bullish impulse phase.
As long as the bulls hold, a movement towards the upper bound of the wedge pattern in orange and the $70,000 mark is expected.
On the 4-hour timeframe, BTC has been bullish, trading within the rising blue channel.
The bulls will remain in control unless the last low at $65,500 is broken downward. In such a scenario, a correction towards $60,000 is expected.
As per our previous market outlook, ETH is still hovering around the $3,500 resistance and round number.
For the bulls to remain in control and push towards $3,800, a break above the $3,500 round number is needed.
In parallel, for the bears to take over, and shift the momentum, a break below the $3,360 mark is needed. In such a scenario, a bearish reversal towards the $3,000 round number would be anticipated.
Quotes / Advices
You never know what kind of setup the market will present to you, your objective should be to find an opportunity where risk-reward ratio is best.
~ Jaymin Shah
Closing Remarks
In summary, BTC and ETH are experiencing minor gains while some altcoins like XRP, BNB, and AVAX surged significantly.
The Fear & Greed Index quickly shifted from "Fear" to "Greed" following a recent market dip.
US500 indicates a potential bearish correction, while DXY (USD Index) is poised to continue its upward trend. Gold has seen a bearish dip and may correct further.
For USDT.D, a key sentiment indicator, the market is in a correction phase but may soon see bullish activity.
