Altcoin Awakening: 2025 Begins

Welcome to another crypto market outlook for the 5th of January!

The first week of the year has started on a positive note, with BTC dominance weakening and altcoins gaining momentum. Could this be the beginning of another alt-season wave, or will BTC break above the $100,000 mark? Let’s explore this together.

‍‍Today, we will cover the following topics:

- Market Heatmap and Fear and Greed Index
- US500, DXY and Gold Analysis
- USDT.D, Bitcoin and Ethereum Analysis
- Quotes / Advices
- Closing Remarks

Market Heatmap and Fear and Greed Index

‍BTC has remained stable this week, closing nearly at breakeven, while ETH surged by over 6%. This upward movement in ETH has lifted the entire altcoin market, particularly large-cap assets like XRP, SOL, ADA, and SUI.

The Fear and Greed Index continues to signal "Greed," as traders anticipate the start of another altcoin season wave. As altcoins gain momentum, the index is expected to shift to "Extreme Greed."

US500, DXY and Gold analysis

This week, the stock market has entered a correction phase, as evidenced by the US500 losing momentum.

However, the overall bias remains bullish, as the last major low at $5,800 has not been broken downward yet.

If the $5,800 low is broken downward, a deeper bearish correction is expected.

In parallel, if the last high at $5,945 is broken upward, the bulls will regain medium-term control.

The $107.5 level continues to hold as strong support for the USD index, with further upside expected toward the $112 resistance level.

The DXY will remain bullish from both short-term and long-term perspectives as long as it continues trading within the rising red and blue channels, respectively.

As it approaches the lower bounds of these channels, we anticipate the bulls will step in again for another trend-following impulse, as highlighted in our last market outlook.

Gold has remained stable during the holidays but maintains an overall bullish outlook as it holds above the lower bound of the rising channel marked in orange.

From a short-term perspective, gold has entered a correction phase after rejecting the upper bound of the red rising broadening wedge pattern.

As it approaches the intersection of the lower red and orange trendlines, this area will serve as a significant zone to consider trend-following long positions.

USDT.D, Bitcoin and Ethereum analysis

As anticipated in our latest USDT.D update, it rejected the upper bound of the red falling channel and moved lower to retest the 4% support level.

The 4% level serves as a significant round number and support. As long as it holds, a bearish correction in the crypto market is likely to follow.

From a short-term perspective, for the bulls to regain control of USDT.D—and thereby trigger a bearish correction in the crypto market—a break above the last high, marked in orange at 4.06%, is required.

In parallel, if the 4% level is broken downward, a deeper correction within the daily support zone is anticipated.

After rejecting the $100,000 round number, BTC has entered a period of stagnation, as noted in the last market overview.

This week, BTC appears to be completing a head and shoulders pattern. If the neckline, marked in green at $91,000, is broken downward, a significant bearish correction toward the lower orange trendline becomes highly probable.

In parallel, if the $100,000 level is broken upward, a new bullish wave toward fresh all-time highs is likely to follow.

With BTC dominance declining, ETH seized the opportunity to break above the $3,500–$3,600 resistance zone, as highlighted in our last roundup article.

As long as the $3,500 support holds, further upside toward the $4,000 resistance level is anticipated.

As long as the recent low at $3,570 holds, the bulls will maintain control from a short-term perspective.

Quotes / Advices

‍I know where I’m getting out before I get in.
~ Bruce Kovner

Closing Remarks

‍In summary, ETH has surged over 6%, lifting the altcoin market and signaling a potential alt-season wave. The Fear and Greed Index reflects "Greed," with expectations of shifting to "Extreme Greed" as altcoins gain further traction.

US500 in a correction phase but maintaining a bullish bias, DXY holding strong support at $107.5, and Gold maintaining an upward trajectory within its rising channel.

USDT.D rejected a key resistance and is testing support at 4%, setting a critical pivot for crypto market direction.

BTC shows potential for a bearish correction if it breaks below $91,000 but could rally to new highs if $100,000 is surpassed.

ETH remains bullish, having broken above $3,500, with the $4,000 target on the horizon.