Welcome to another crypto market outlook for the 30th of June!
In this edition, we'll delve into major assets such as US500, DXY, Gold, Bitcoin, and Ethereum, highlighting critical levels and potential trade setups.
From Bitcoin hovering around the $60,000 support level to Ethereum breaking below the $3,500 mark and the Fear & Greed Index signaling ‘Fear’ for the first time in months, this article covers it all.
Are you ready?
Today, we will cover the following topics:
- Market Heatmap and Fear and Greed Index
- US500, DXY and Gold Analysis
- USDT.D, Bitcoin and Ethereum Analysis
- Quotes / Advices
- Closing Remarks
Market Heatmap and Fear and Greed Index
To initiate my research, I delved into the analysis by examining the market heatmap, which provided a comprehensive overview of the entire cryptocurrency market.
After breaking below the $66,000 structure, BTC dipped by over -5.45%, and ETH followed, closing the week down by -3.82%.
This bearish movement in BTC was reflected across the entire crypto market, with almost all altcoins ending the week on a bearish note.
The Fear & Greed Index is signaling "Fear" for the first time in months, with the meter dropping significantly from 73 to 30 in one week.
This signifies that traders are pessimistic pre-summer, which could be a signal to start looking for opportunities to accumulate altcoins.
US500, DXY and Gold analysis
We consistently monitor the US500 index to assess the current market sentiment. This practice is crucial because the cryptocurrency market often exhibits a significant correlation with the stock market, and this interconnection can impact its fluctuations.
As per our previous market outlook, the US500 is still hovering around a strong rejection point, which is the intersection of the upper bound of the wedge pattern and the $5,500 round number.
The bears will have the potential to kick in unless the $5,500 level is broken upward.
In the 4-hour timeframe, the US500 has been hovering within a narrow range, forming a double top pattern.
For the bears to take over and start the correction phase towards the $5,375 mark, a break below the last major low marked in red at $5,435 is needed.
We consistently monitor the DXY - USD Index as part of our routine analysis. This is crucial because the value of nearly all assets, including BTC/USD, is closely tied to the USD, which serves as the benchmark currency in the financial market.
DXY has been overall bullish, trading within the rising channel marked in blue.
As long as the bulls maintain control, a continuation towards the $106.5 - $107.5 resistance zone is expected.
In the 4-hour timeframe, DXY has also been bullish from a short-term perspective, trading within the rising channel marked in orange.
The bulls will remain in control unless the last major low marked in orange at $105.7 is broken downward.
In such a scenario, a bearish correction towards the $105.1 support level would be anticipated.
Gold is still hovering within a broad range in the shape of a flat rising channel marked in red.
Currently, Gold is retesting the lower bound of the channel. As long as the last major low at $2,265 holds, a bullish continuation is anticipated.
In the 4-hour timeframe, Gold has been hovering within a narrow range, forming a symmetrical triangle.
For the bulls to take over and start the next upward impulse movement, a break above the upper blue trendline is needed.
USDT.D, Bitcoin and Ethereum analysis
As a standard practice, I begin my analysis with USDT.D as it serves as a critical indicator of traders' sentiment. USDT.D provides valuable insights into whether traders are optimistic, signaling increased investment in cryptocurrencies, or pessimistic, indicating a shift towards stablecoins.
After breaking above the 4.8% structure, USDT.D has been overall bullish.
As long as the 5.25% - 5.45% resistance zone holds, we anticipate bearish pressure soon!
As per our previous market outlook, USDT.D is still overall bullish, trading within the rising channel marked in red.
For the bears to take over and shift the momentum, a break below the last major low marked in red at 5% is needed.
As per our previous outlook, BTC is currently hovering around a strong support zone between $58,000 and $60,000.
As long as the $58,000 support level holds, we expect the bulls to kick in soon!
In the 4-hour timeframe, for the bulls to take over and shift the momentum, a break above the last major high marked in blue at $63,000 is needed.
Meanwhile, BTC remains bearish and can still dive towards the $58,000 support level.
ETH broke below the $3,500 support level this week.
As long as the $3,500 resistance level holds, a bearish continuation towards the demand zone marked in green is anticipated.
In the 4-hour timeframe, ETH has been bearish, trading within the falling channel marked in blue.
For the bulls to take over and start the next upward movement leading to $4,000, a break above the last major high at $3,520 is needed.
Quotes / Advices
Crypto trading in a bearish market can be tricky due to volatile price swings and increased market uncertainty.
Traders face challenges like predicting market bottoms, avoiding panic selling, and managing risks.
Emotional decisions can lead to significant losses, while finding profitable trades requires advanced technical analysis and a deep understanding of market trends.
Patience and strategic planning are crucial to navigating the downturn effectively.
Closing Remarks
In summary, the cryptocurrency market experienced a significant downturn this week. BTC declined by over -5.45%, and ETH dropped by -3.82%, reflecting a broader bearish sentiment across altcoins.
The Fear & Greed Index has shifted from "Greed" to "Fear," indicating increased trader pessimism.
The US500 maintains a cautious outlook as it nears the $5,500 rejection point. Bearish momentum is expected if this resistance level holds.
The DXY Index shows bullish potential, aiming for the $106.5-$107.5 resistance zone. Short-term support is anticipated to hold, maintaining an upward trend.
Gold is testing its support levels at the lower bound of its channel. Bullish movements are anticipated if the lower trendlines hold.
The USDT.D analysis shows bullish momentum, with a critical resistance zone at 5.25%-5.45%. Bearish pressure is expected if this resistance holds.
BTC and ETH remain bearish, trading within falling channels. BTC needs to break above $63,000 for a bullish reversal, while ETH requires a break above $3,520 to shift momentum. Until then, both are expected to test their respective support levels.
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