elcome to another crypto market outlook for the 3rd of March!
In this edition, we'll delve into major assets such as US500, DXY, Gold, Bitcoin, and Ethereum, highlighting critical levels and potential trade setups.
From Bitcoin marking new highs this week to Ethereum hovering around $3500, and the Fear & Greed Index signaling “Extreme Greed” for the first time in years, this article covers it all.
Are you ready?
Today, we will cover the following topics:
- Market Heatmap and Fear and Greed Index
- US500, DXY and Gold Analysis
- USDT.D, Bitcoin and Ethereum Analysis
- Quotes / Advices
- Closing Remarks
Market Heatmap and Fear and Greed Index
To initiate my research, I delved into the analysis by examining the market heatmap, which provided a comprehensive overview of the entire cryptocurrency market.
After breaking above the $53,000 range, BTC soared by 21.35%, marking one of its most impressive weeks in the past 2 years.
This parabolic rise influenced the entire market positively, with ETH also experiencing a notable 15.86% increase.
The Fear & Greed Index has consistently signaled "Greed" throughout the entire week, especially in the last two days, as the meter surged from 74 to 80 and then to 83, indicating “Extreme Greed.”
This marks the first occurrence of such extreme sentiment in the past 2 years. This suggests that traders are optimistic, likely influenced by the approval of Bitcoin ETFs and anticipation of the upcoming halving.
US500, DXY and Gold analysis
We consistently monitor the US500 index to assess the current market sentiment. This practice is crucial because the cryptocurrency market often exhibits a significant correlation with the stock market, and this interconnection can impact its fluctuations.
US500 is still hovering around the upper bound of the blue wedge pattern, which is acting as an overbought zone. Therefore, there remains potential for bears to step in and drive the price downward.
In the 4-hour timeframe, US500 has been overall bullish, trading within a flat rising broadening wedge in red.
The bulls are expected to maintain control in the short term, unless the short-term orange channel is broken downward. In such an event, a bearish correction towards the $5045 mark would be anticipated.
We consistently monitor the DXY - USD Index as part of our routine analysis. This is crucial because the value of nearly all assets, including BTC/USD, is closely tied to the USD, which serves as the benchmark currency in the financial market.
DXY has experienced a relatively uneventful week, remaining around the minor support marked in blue.
If the $103.65 level is breached downward, we would expect a movement towards the $102.7 support in orange.
In parallel, for the bulls to take control again and initiate the next upward impulse movement towards $105, a breakout above the last major high in red at $104.22 is necessary.
After rejecting the $1980 - $2000 support zone, Gold surged higher in a parabolic fashion over the past few weeks.
However, it is now approaching a strong resistance zone between $2078 and $2100.
To sustain bullish momentum over the long term, a breakthrough above $2100 is necessary.
In the 4-hour timeframe, in line with our analysis from last week, Gold rejected the $2020 structure and traded higher.
Currently, Gold is hovering around a resistance zone and the upper bound of the blue wedge pattern.
To shift momentum in favor of the bears, a breach below $2078 is necessary.
USDT.D, Bitcoin and Ethereum analysis
As a standard practice, I begin my analysis with USDT.D as it serves as a critical indicator of traders' sentiment. USDT.D provides valuable insights into whether traders are optimistic, signaling increased investment in cryptocurrencies, or pessimistic, indicating a shift towards stablecoins.
As anticipated in our previous analysis, USDT.D breached below the 5% support and has since moved lower.
We are now expecting a continuation towards the 4% support level, which intersects with the lower brown and orange trendlines.
In the 4-hour timeframe, for the bulls to take control, a breakout above the last major high in red at 4.55% is necessary.
Meanwhile, USDT.D remains bearish, with the potential to continue trading downward and test the 4% support level.
BTC has seen little action this week, hovering around the upper boundary of the range channel.
For the bulls to maintain control from a long-term perspective, a breakout above the $65,000 mark is required.
In parallel, for the bears to take control and initiate the correction phase, a break below the symmetrical triangle and last low at $61,000 is required.
In such a scenario, a movement towards the $57,500 demand would be anticipated.
This week, ETH surged above the $3000 resistance and traded in a parabolic manner.
Currently, ETH is hovering around a strong resistance level. For the bulls to maintain control in the long term, a break above $3600 is required.
In the 4-hour timeframe, ETH would maintain an overall bullish outlook unless the lower red trendline and the last major low in red at $3300 are breached downward.
In such an event, a bearish correction towards the $3000 support level would be anticipated.
Quotes / Advices
Trading is like cooking because both involve mixing ingredients for a delicious outcome!
In trading, you blend various assets like a chef mixes flavors, aiming for a balanced portfolio. Just as a chef adjusts spices for taste, traders tweak strategies for profit.
Timing matters—like cooking a perfect steak, selling at the right moment is key. And just as chefs experiment with new recipes, traders explore different markets for success.
Closing Remarks
In summary, the Fear & Greed Index indicated "Extreme Greed," a sentiment not seen in two years, possibly driven by Bitcoin ETF approvals and anticipation of the upcoming halving.
US500 remains in an overbought zone, with potential for a bearish correction.
DXY is relatively stable but may see movement based on support levels.
Gold surged but faces strong resistance around $2078-$2100.
USDT.D indicates a bearish sentiment, with potential to test the 4% support level.
BTC and ETH remain bullish but require breakouts above key resistance levels to sustain momentum.
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