elcome to another crypto market outlook for the 21st of April!
In this edition, we'll delve into major assets such as US500, DXY, Gold, Bitcoin, and Ethereum, highlighting critical levels and potential trade setups.
From Bitcoin rejecting the $60,000 support post-halving, to Ethereum surging by 9%, and the Fear & Greed Index signaling 'Greed’ for the entire week, this article covers it all.
Are you ready?
Today, we will cover the following topics:
- Market Heatmap and Fear and Greed Index
- US500, DXY and Gold Analysis
- USDT.D, Bitcoin and Ethereum Analysis
- Quotes / Advices
- Closing Remarks
Market Heatmap and Fear and Greed Index
To initiate my research, I delved into the analysis by examining the market heatmap, which provided a comprehensive overview of the entire cryptocurrency market.
After experiencing a rejection at the $60,000 support post-halving, BTC surged by 9%, closing the week with a gain of +1.85%.
This bullish movement was reflected in altcoins, with nearly all closing the week positively, ranging between +3% and +15%.
The Fear & Greed Index remained stable, signaling "Greed" throughout the entire week. This suggests that traders are optimistic, particularly as tensions from geopolitical conflicts between Iran and Israel appear to be cooling down.
US500, DXY and Gold analysis
We consistently monitor the US500 index to assess the current market sentiment. This practice is crucial because the cryptocurrency market often exhibits a significant correlation with the stock market, and this interconnection can impact its fluctuations.
As expected, the US500 rejected the upper bound of the blue wedge pattern and is currently in a correction phase.
As it approaches the previous all-time high at $4,800, we will be expecting the bulls to kick in and start the next impulse movement upward.
In the 4-hour timeframe, the bears have maintained control as the US500 has continued to trade within the descending channel marked in green.
For the bulls to take over and shift the momentum from bearish to bullish, a break above the last major high in green at $5,040 is needed.
We consistently monitor the DXY - USD Index as part of our routine analysis. This is crucial because the value of nearly all assets, including BTC/USD, is closely tied to the USD, which serves as the benchmark currency in the financial market.
DXY has been overall bullish trading within the rising channel marked in blue.
However, it is currently nearing the upper bound of the channel and the $106.5 resistance level, suggesting potential bearish control.
In the 4-hour timeframe, to signal a shift in momentum favoring the bears and initiating a correction phase towards the lower red trendline, a break below the last major low marked in red at $105.75 is needed.
Gold maintains an overall bullish outlook from a macro perspective, trading within two long-term channels marked in blue and brown.
As long as the bulls remain in control, we anticipate a continuation towards the $2,500 round number.
In the 4-hour timeframe, Gold has been overall bullish from a medium-term perspective, trading within the rising channel in orange.
The bulls will remain in control unless the last low in orange at $2,320 is broken downward.
USDT.D, Bitcoin and Ethereum analysis
As a standard practice, I begin my analysis with USDT.D as it serves as a critical indicator of traders' sentiment. USDT.D provides valuable insights into whether traders are optimistic, signaling increased investment in cryptocurrencies, or pessimistic, indicating a shift towards stablecoins.
As anticipated in last week's outlook, USDT.D rejected the 5% resistance and traded lower.
As long as the 5.25% resistance holds, we will be expecting further bearish movement, which would be healthy for the crypto market.
In the 4-hour timeframe, for the bears to remain in control, a break below the last major low in blue at 4.54% is needed.
In this case, a continuation towards the lower bound of the red channel would be expected.
As per our previous outlook, BTC rejected the $60,000 support and traded higher.
As long as the $60,000 support holds, we will be expecting further bullish movement towards the $72,000 mark and the upper bound of the red channel.
For the bulls to remain in control, a break above the structure marked in orange at $65,500 is needed.
Meanwhile, BTC would be hovering within a range between $60,000 and $65,000.
As expected, ETH rejected the $2,750 - $2,900 support zone and traded higher.
As long as the $2,750 support holds, we will be expecting further bullish movement towards the $3,500 mark and the upper bound of the red channel.
For the bulls to remain in control, a break above the structure marked in orange at $3,280 is needed.
Meanwhile, ETH can still trade lower to test the $2,900 support level again before trading higher.
Quotes / Advices
Bitcoin halving occurs every four years, cutting miners' rewards in half to maintain scarcity.
This ensures Bitcoin's deflationary nature and bolsters its value.
Reduced supply often boosts demand and prices.
Halving events significantly influence Bitcoin's economics and the broader cryptocurrency market, warranting close attention from investors and enthusiasts.
Closing Remarks
In summary, the cryptocurrency market witnessed a surge as BTC rallied by 9% post-halving, impacting altcoins positively.
The Fear & Greed Index maintained "Greed" amid geopolitical tensions easing.
US500 faces a correction phase, while DXY approaches resistance at $106.5.
Gold maintains bullish momentum but corrects towards $2,300.
USDT.D surged, suggesting a potential bearish response.
BTC hovers between $60,000-$74,000, while ETH tests support at $3,000.
