elcome to another crypto market outlook for the 12th of May!
In this edition, we'll delve into major assets such as US500, DXY, Gold, Bitcoin, and Ethereum, highlighting critical levels and potential trade setups.
From Bitcoin rejecting the $60,000 round number to Ethereum hovering around the $2,900 support level, and the Fear & Greed Index signaling 'Greed' for the entire week, this article covers it all.
Are you ready?
Today, we will cover the following topics:
- Market Heatmap and Fear and Greed Index
- US500, DXY and Gold Analysis
- USDT.D, Bitcoin and Ethereum Analysis
- Quotes / Advices
- Closing Remarks
Market Heatmap and Fear and Greed Index
To initiate my research, I delved into the analysis by examining the market heatmap, which provided a comprehensive overview of the entire cryptocurrency market.
After rejecting the $60,000 support, BTC has been trading within a range, closing the week slightly bullish at +0.5%.
This flat movement in BTC was reflected in the entire crypto market, with a mixture of bullish and bearish sentiments observed across altcoins.
The Fear & Greed Index is still signaling “Greed,” but the meter has dropped significantly from 69 to 56. This suggests that traders are still optimistic, although not as much as last week where the meter reached a level of 69.
US500, DXY and Gold analysis
We consistently monitor the US500 index to assess the current market sentiment. This practice is crucial because the cryptocurrency market often exhibits a significant correlation with the stock market, and this interconnection can impact its fluctuations.
The US500 has been overall bullish, trading within the rising wedge pattern marked in blue.
Currently, it is approaching the upper bound of the wedge pattern, so we anticipate the bears to kick in soon.
In the 4-hour timeframe, the bulls have maintained control, trading within the rising channel marked in red.
The bulls will continue to dominate unless the last major low, highlighted in red at $5170, is breached downward.
We consistently monitor the DXY - USD Index as part of our routine analysis. This is crucial because the value of nearly all assets, including BTC/USD, is closely tied to the USD, which serves as the benchmark currency in the financial market.
As anticipated in our previous outlook, DXY rejected the upper boundary of the blue channel and the $106.5 resistance level.
Currently, DXY is undergoing a correction phase, and we anticipate a bearish continuation towards the lower blue trendline and demand zone around $104.3.
In the 4-hour timeframe, the bears are clearly in control, especially after breaking below the last major low marked in red.
As long as the previous major low, highlighted in red at $105.7 holds, we anticipate a bearish continuation towards the $104.3 mark.
This week, Gold has been overall bullish from a long-term perspective, trading within the rising wedge pattern marked in orange.
Currently, it is approaching the upper bound of the wedge and the $2500 round number.
In the 4-hour timeframe, the bulls will maintain control as long as the last major low marked in red at $2265 holds.
If the $2265 mark is broken downward, a bearish correction towards the blue trendline around $2170 would be expected.
USDT.D, Bitcoin and Ethereum analysis
As a standard practice, I begin my analysis with USDT.D as it serves as a critical indicator of traders' sentiment. USDT.D provides valuable insights into whether traders are optimistic, signaling increased investment in cryptocurrencies, or pessimistic, indicating a shift towards stablecoins.
As anticipated in last week's outlook, USDT.D rejected the 5.25% - 5.45% resistance zone and is currently trading lower.
As it retests the 5.25% resistance again, we expect the bears to kick in and initiate the next bearish wave, which would be positive for the crypto market.
In the 4-hour timeframe, USDT.D has been overall bullish from a short-term perspective, trading within the rising blue channel.
For the bears to take over, a break below the last major low marked in blue at 4.87% is needed. In such a scenario, a movement towards the 4.55% mark would be anticipated.
Meanwhile, USDT.D would remain bullish and could still test the 5.25% resistance level.
BTC has been hovering within a range around the $60,000 - $62,000 support zone.
As long as the $60,000 support holds, we anticipate further bullish movement towards the $68,000 mark and the upper boundary of the red channel.
From a short-term perspective, BTC has been bearish, trading within the falling channel marked in orange.
For the bulls to take over and shift the momentum from bearish to bullish, a break above the last major high marked in orange at $63,500 is needed.
In parallel, if the $60,000 support level is broken downward, a bearish continuation towards the lower red trendline would be anticipated.
As anticipated in our previous analysis, ETH rejected the $2,900 support level and is currently hovering within a narrow range.
As long as the $2750 support level holds, we anticipate the bulls to kick in soon, leading to a bullish correction towards the upper red trendline.
In the 4-hour timeframe, ETH has been bearish from a short-term perspective.
For the bulls to regain control, a break above the orange trendline and the last major high marked in orange at $3,060 is needed.
Meanwhile, ETH would remain bearish and could still dip within the $2,750 - $2,900 support zone.
Quotes / Advices
Crypto trading offers unique advantages, including high liquidity and accessibility, enabling 24/7 trading worldwide.
Decentralization offers transparency and reduces reliance on intermediaries.
Lower transaction fees compared to traditional markets attract investors.
The potential for significant returns within short time frames entices traders.
Additionally, blockchain technology ensures immutable records, enhancing trust. Innovative projects and tokenization open new avenues for investment.
Closing Remarks
In summary, the cryptocurrency market demonstrates mixed sentiments with BTC trading within a range post-rejection of $60,000 support, closing slightly bullish at +0.5%.
Fear & Greed Index shows optimism though decreased from previous levels.
US500 and Gold undergo corrections, while DXY nears resistance at $106.5.
USDT.D indicates potential bearish activity.
BTC aims for $68,000 resistance, while ETH tests $3,500 resistance post-rejection of $2,900 support.
