Bitcoin options expiry on June 28 will witness more than $17 billion of contracts expiring near the $107,000 strike. As one of the year’s biggest quarterly expiries, it has the potential to inject a huge level of volatility in the cryptocurrency market. Expiration can stimulate extreme movements based on the traders’ positioning and sentiment.
$17 Billion Bitcoin Options to Expire
Over $17 billion of Bitcoin options on Deribit, the most open interest-exchange cryptocurrency options, expire on June 28. The options account for nearly 40% of the exchange’s open interest. With Bitcoin trading around $107,300, most of them are near-the-money, and minimal price fluctuations will impact their value and generate more market activity.
Put-Call Ratio Reflects Change in Sentiment
The near-expiration put-call ratio has advanced to 0.72. This reflects increased demand for cover puts most commonly employed by traders to hedge against possible declines.
And still, analysts note that some of these puts are cash-covered, typically written to receive premiums and in no way as a bearish sentiment. This reflects an intertwining of yield-hunting and hedging measures in motion.
Max Pain Zone At $102K
Options data also indicates a “max pain” at $102,000. It is where the majority of options would lose value and reduce both puts and call payoffs.
Price will then come into this zone as expiry nears as hedging traders push it there. Because the spot price is currently higher, buyers will watch whether Bitcoin will bounce back from below this point or stay above it.
Most Calls May Expire Worthless
Out of roughly 141,000 contracts expiring, nearly 82,000 are call options. Sentiment can be generally bullish, but only some 20% are in the money.
That means, assuming Bitcoin does not surge significantly higher above $107,000 in the next few days, most of these calls will be worthless at expiry. That can affect bullish sentiment and price action post-expiry.
Volatility Expected Ahead of Options Expiry
Large expiries produce short-term volatility as traders close out, rebalance or hedge. Price swings are common in the final days leading to expiry as liquidity shifts and key levels are tested.
Large expiries such as this one will introduce volatility by up to 30–50% most of the time. Traders need to be prepared for price spikes and rapid action as players rebalance.
Traders Prepare for Post-Expiry Action
Different strategies are in play. Some are shorting cash-covered puts for a profit, while others are waiting for a breakout above the resistance.
With resistance near $108,000 and the max pain at $102,000, the range is tight. Prices in Bitcoin after expiry can influence sentiment coming into July.
Market players are expecting a quick reaction at current elevated open interest and positioning themselves strategically on either side of the $107,000 mark. Volatility is on offer and the outcome will dictate short-term price direction and sentiment.
