Geoffrey Kendrick, a Standard Charter Researcher, indicates that Bitcoin has not absorbed the rising financial system risks into its valuation. The US 10-year term premium attained a 12year high point in April 22. The is due to market participants believing inflation will rise while debt selling will increase.
Political Pressure on the Fed
The bond market experiences stress because a threatening political situation aims to replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The threat to Federal Reserve independence falls into the category of government-related risks which pushes Bitcoin toward becoming a hedge. Kendrick declares that Bitcoin will start demonstrating this effect soon.
Bitcoin as a Dual-Purpose Hedge
Standard Chartered evaluates Bitcoin as an asset that protects against systemic risks which stem from private-sector problems such as the 2023 Silicon Valley Bank failure together with public-sector losses that result from central bank involvement. Bitcoin’s true use case will emerge when economic distress occurs. Although it typically functions as a typical riskdriven asset in normal market conditions.
Current Market Divergence
Bitcoin maintains its price position below $100,000 even though the term premium is sharply increasing. Kendrick attributes this temporary lag to investor focus on trade-related concerns, particularly tech-sector tariffs. According to his analysis Bitcoin will resume its hedging role after investors shift their focus back to central bank credibility while the price will revert accordingly.
Growing Systemic Risks
Standard Chartered Bank continues to project Bitcoin will reach price above $200000 this year and approximately 500000 by 2028. There are 2 main driving factors for such scenario: macroeconomic pressure that persists alongside better spot ETF inflows. Secondly , an efficient derivatives market ecosystem. Kendrick predicts institutional support under the US administration will lead to what the market needs for its next all-time high.
