Bitcoin is stabilizing between 104,000 and 116,000, and on-chain metrics indicate that this price might characterize the next big movement. Glassnode reported on Sept. 4 that Bitcoin sharply bounced off its mid-August all-time high and then recovered into the band it is in.
Mid-range Fills Accumulation Zone ‘Air Gap’
UTXO Realized Price Distribution: Investors were buying steadily throughout the pullback, especially at the range of $108,000 to $116,000–filling what Glassnode refers to as the air gap. This is in the same range as historical post-euphoria consolidation zones during preceding cycles.
Important Breakdown vs. Important Breakout: $104K vs. $114K.
The new battlefield is the 0.85 to 0.95 quantile range (104,100-114,300) of the cost basis. Any prolonged decline to below 104K would resemble previous phases of exhaustion. Conversely, any breakout of higher than $114K-116K would reflect returned demand control.
Short-Term Holders Are Still in Limbo.
Short-term holders saw their profitability drop to 42 percent during the decline, which has since returned to above 60 percent. Further increases of more than 116K would bring 75 percent of this generation back into profit, recovering confidence and even generating new inflows.
TradFi Interest Wanes as ETF Inflows Wane.
Bitcoin ETF inflows have been falling by 3,000 BTC on average per day to 540 BTC in the last two weeks. This narrowing of conventional finance demand is accompanied by a neutral maturing cycle and a neutral funding rates of futures.
Market Waits to give a Directional Confirmation.
Bitcoin is now confined to the same range and, therefore, sentiment neutral. The market awaits a clear cut move either way.
