BTC on the Brink: Will It Break Resistance or Retrace?

Welcome to another crypto market outlook for the 6th of October!

BTC is approaching a key resistance zone at $62,850, hinting at a possible bullish breakout. Will it play out as expected? Let's dive into the potential scenarios ahead.

‍‍Today, we will cover the following topics:

- Market Heatmap and Fear and Greed Index
- US500, DXY and Gold Analysis
- USDT.D, Bitcoin and Ethereum Analysis
- Quotes / Advices
- Closing Remarks

Market Heatmap and Fear and Greed Index

‍The crypto market faced a setback this week due to uncertainty surrounding the conflict in the Middle East.

BTC dropped by 5.85%, and ETH by over 9% causing the entire crypto market to melt.

7 days crypto heatmap showing overall bearish sentiment with BTC down by 5.85% and ETH by 9.65%. — *Crypto 7-Days Heatmap*

It's not surprising that the Fear and Greed Index shifted from Greed to Neutral this week, and I expect it to move to Fear soon if bearish pressure continues.

When the meter shifts to Fear, it could present a good opportunity to start looking for long positions to take advantage of the anticipated medium-term reversal.

Fear and greed index signaling Neutral for the entire week. — *Fear and Greed Index*

US500, DXY and Gold analysis

US500 weekly chart overall bullish trading within the rising channel and approaching the round number $6,000. — *US500 Chart - Weekly Timeframe*

The US500 isn't slowing down as the US election draws closer week by week.

As it approaches the upper bound of its rising channel, marked in brown, we can expect bearish pressure to emerge.

US500 4h chart overall bullish as long as the last low at $5,620 holds. — *US500 Chart - 4H Timeframe*

Short-term, US500 has been bullish as it is trading within the ascending channel and above the previous all-time high.

The bears will only take control if the $5,620 support level is broken to the downside.

DXY weekly chart bullish pressure persists after rejecting the $100 round number. — *DXY Chart - Weekly Timeframe*

As anticipated in our last DXY analysis, it rejected the lower bound of the channel and the round number of $100.

If the previous cycles repeat, we expect a few bullish weeks ahead for the DXY, potentially moving toward the upper bound of the red channel.

DXY 4h chart eyeing the $103.13 previous major high after breaking above the $101 mark. — *DXY Chart - 4H Timeframe*

DXY aligned perfectly with our analysis by breaking above the previous major high at $101, followed by a parabolic surge after the NFP news came out positive for the USD.

With the bulls still in control, a continuation towards $103.13 is likely.

Gold daily chart overall bullish and approaching the $2,700 resistance. — *GOLD Chart - Daily Timeframe*

Gold remained relatively stable this week despite the aggressive surge in DXY.

As it approaches the upper bound of the purple channel, we anticipate a significant bearish correction, as no asset continues to trade higher indefinitely.

Gold 4h chart overall bullish unless the last low at $2,622 is broken downward. — *GOLD Chart - 4H Timeframe*

The bearish scenario will be triggered if the previous low at $2,622 is broken to the downside.

Meanwhile, the overall sentiment and trend for Gold will remain bullish.

USDT.D, Bitcoin and Ethereum analysis

USDT.D 4h chart overall bullish after breaking above the 5.55% structure and eyeing the 6% round number. — *USDT.D Chart - 4H Timeframe*

After breaking above the blue channel, as highlighted in our last USDT.D analysis, it rebounded from the 5.85% supply zone and is currently undergoing a correction.

As it retests the previous structure at 5.55%, we anticipate a bullish impulse to emerge.

USDT.D 1h chart awaiting a break above the last high at 5.72% for the bulls to take over again. — *USDT.D Chart - 1H Timeframe*

If the recent high at 5.72% is broken to the upside, the correction will likely be short-lived, and the bulls could trigger the bullish impulse earlier than expected.

In the meantime, USDT.D is expected to test the 5.55% structure before making another surge.

BTC daily chart rejected the $60,000 round number. — *BTC Chart - Daily Timeframe*

BTC held strong above the $60,000 mark, despite all the negative news that could have caused a significant decline.

Bearish pressure will only emerge if the $58,000 support level is lost as mentioned in the last market outlook.

BTC 4h chart showing the last high at $62,850 that we need a break above for the bulls to take over again. — *BTC Chart - 4H Timeframe*

For the buyers to regain control, a break above the green structure at $62,850 is needed.

In the meantime, expect BTC to remain bearish in the short term, likely dipping into the $58,000 support zone to gather more liquidity for a potential push higher.

ETH daily chart hovering within a big symmetrical triangle. — *ETH Chart - Daily Timeframe*

ETH has been uneventful this month for both traders and investors, stuck within a large symmetrical triangle marked in orange.

At the moment, ETH is positioned in the middle of the triangle, creating a tricky situation with no clear advantage for either bulls or bears.

ETH 4h chart overall bullish unless the last low at $2,380 is broken downward. — *ETH Chart - 4H Timeframe*

ETH is currently retesting the $2,400 - $2,500 zone, which is now acting as resistance.

For another significant bearish impulse to begin, a break below the recent minor low at $2,380 is necessary.

In the meantime, ETH could still move slightly higher to test the $2,500 round number.

Quotes / Advices

‍In trading/investing, it’s not about how much you make but rather how much you don’t lose.
~ Bernard Baruch

Closing Remarks

‍In summary, The crypto market took a hit due to geopolitical uncertainties, with BTC and ETH experiencing significant declines, dragging down altcoins.

The Fear and Greed Index shifted from Greed to Neutral, with the possibility of moving to Fear soon, which could offer opportunities for long positions.

DXY followed prior analysis, breaking key resistance and surging after favorable NFP news, with expectations for further bullish momentum.

Gold has remained stable despite DXY's rise but may face a bearish correction if it continues testing the upper channel.

USDT.D is approaching a key resistance zone at 5.55% while BTC is hovering around a major high and ETH preparing for another bearish impulse.