n a surprising turn of events, Vice President Kamala Harris surged recently on Polymarket, pulling even with former President Donald Trump.
It reflects the dynamic change in the 2024 presidential race, shifting according to the recent events and performances the bettors adjust their expectations.
This conclusion is not a matter of speculation; the Polymarket betting data strongly indicate a tie. While both nominees had eloquent arguments, the debate kept viewers' nails biting.
Harris' Rising Popularity
Harris's recent performance has clicked with the people betting on Polymarket. Her terrific outing in the most recent debate has seen her odds skyrocket to bring her even with Trump.
This surge indicates growing confidence in her campaign and her ability to lead. Her strategic mentions of key issues like "Project 2025" and advancements in "Artificial Intelligence" have placed her as one of the forward-thinking candidates, and that is how the bettors react to her.
Trump's Controversial Claims
Known for his bombastic pronouncements, Trump did not disappoint. He reiterated some claims about migrants in Springfield, Ohio, which fact-checkers later debunked. This did not faze his base, however, and some bettors at Polymarket even profited from his utterances of "Springfield" and "Cat."
Although with no mention of crypto, his base continues to back him solidly, as evidenced by his consistent odds on Polymarket. Similarly, bold claims and promises from Trump-such as the efficacy of tariffs-have kept his supporters engaged, and betting, in his favor. Still, it is interesting to note that his odds have not gone up, which suggests that while his base is consistent, it hasn't expanded as Harris' has.
Polymarket's Role in the Debate
The interesting thing is that the market for prediction betting, Polymarket, is a fascinating way to look into public sentiment. Bettors were active; some predicted even the words that would come out of the candidates' mouths.
Harris emerged as the favorite during the debate, with a high 98% of bettors showing their confidence in her victory, according to polls. The chance of a handshake between the candidates was pegged at 30%, and indeed, it did happen against all expectations.
Throughout the night, Polymarket bettors reacted to every twist and turn, making it quite obvious as to who they thought won. While both Harris and Trump have their die-hard supporters, the betting trend is a unique look into public perception.
