Julien Bittel of Global Macro Investor criticized the popular neo-Malthusian thesis of the crypto peak cycle. In a Sept. 8 post, he wrote that classic economic sentiment indicators do not favor a late-stage cycle. He scored the data of ISM, NFIB, AAII etc. and revealed that U.S. sentiment remains low, much below the state of euphoria that is common in the bull market peaks.
Tailwinds in the Early-Cycle.
A strong macro tailwind that Bittel noted: almost 90 percent of central banks are cutting rates. Together with 20% less than trend oil prices, he says that the landscape is conducive to expansion and not contraction. In the past, overheated cycles were characterized by oil prices that were 50 per cent above trend-far more than current values.
Job Market Still Rebuilding
The statistics published by Temporary Help Services indicate the initial growth rather than high growth. Increasing unemployment is not a problem, Bittel added, because labor statistics are behind. Most companies would normally recruit temporary and extra time employees before they employ permanent employees. This trend is appropriate to an early-to-mid cycle, rather than a peak.
Macro spring becoming as macro summer.
Bittel called the present phase as Macro Spring-growth up, inflation down. He predicts this to change into Macro Summer where the growth and inflation will increase. This sentiment is contrary to that of crypto sentiment which postulates that the bull cycle is already over and instead, it provides a bullish perspective with support of macro fundamentals.
