Bitcoin was making yet another all-time high of $126,000 in the beginning of October, but the altcoins have not been able to repeat the cycle with a breakout of their own. The TOTAL2ES index based on excluding stablecoins reached its highest point of 1.48 trillion, still less than the high of 1.6 trillion in 2021. Bitcoin has experienced high ETF inflows, but capital has not been rotationed into the altcoins, which has placed the entire market in stalemate.
Macro Uncertainty and Liquidity Stress of the Dollar.
The altcoins are being held back by three macro factors. To start with U.S. Bitcoin ETFs recorded enormous inflows at the beginning of October, yet the initiative has since dwindled. Second, tariffs on Chinese imports are increasing uncertainty, which has affected risk assets in the future. Third, a high level of the Fed Standing Repo Facility is an indicator of tightening liquidity in the dollar. Which prevents the occurrence of speculative flows into high-impact assets such as altcoins.
Major Scenarios To come: Top or Extension?
With ETF flows flat, and funding pressure still present, Bitcoin is possibly at peak, and the drawdown zone is estimated to be between 82,000 and 57,000. The presence in ETF inflows and softer Fed signals would permit a moderate high of about $135,000-155,000. Otherwise, the price can be condensed between $100,000 and $125,000 into the year-end.
Altcoin Season Requires a Single Thing: Confirmation.
Technical confirmation of an altcoin cycle does not exist until the. TOTAL2ES index automatically hits a level above its 2021 high of $1.6 -1.7 trillion. Worth noting, TOTAL2 (including stablecoins) surpassed that threshold on October 7, but sidelined capital does not indicate altcoin rotation. Although there is no breakout flows or upside option skewness, altcoins can continue to languish in the shadow of Bitcoin.
