Welcome to another crypto market outlook for the 15th of June!
With the war escalating between Iran and Israel, the crypto market’s initial reaction is, as usual, bearish during times of uncertainty. If you’ve been through such conditions before, you know it’s the perfect time to DCA, as a sharp bullish correction often follows a sharp bearish move.
Today, we will cover the following topics:
– Market Heatmap and Fear and Greed Index
– US500 and DXY
– USDT.D, Bitcoin and Ethereum Analysis
– Quotes / Advices
– Closing Remarks
Market Heatmap and Fear and Greed Index
Even though the last 48 hours were bearish for crypto, the market still managed to close the week on a bullish note, with BTC ending the week up by 0.72% and ETH by over 2%.
The Fear and Greed Index is surprisingly still signaling greed, which means traders remain optimistic that the war will soon fade and are considering BTC a safe haven during this time of uncertainty.
US500 and DXY analysis
As per our last market outlook, the US500 is still finding resistance around the $6,000 round number and the $6,150 all-time high.
As long as this zone holds, the bears will maintain the upper hand.
From a medium-term perspective on the 4H timeframe, the bears are clearly taking control, having broken below the $6,000 level and the lower orange trendline.
As long as $6,000 acts as resistance, further bearish movement toward the $5,800 support level is expected.
Even though DXY has been bearish for almost two years, it remains overall bullish from a macro perspective, trading within the rising channel marked in red.
As DXY approaches the $95–$96 support zone, which aligns perfectly with the lower red trendline, we expect a stronger USD.
Medium-term, DXY remains bearish as long as it continues to trade within the falling channel marked in blue.
USDT.D, Bitcoin, and Ethereum analysis
As per our latest USDT.D update, it rejected the 4.4% support level and has been trading higher since.
However, it is currently retesting the upper bound of the range at the 5% round number, so we expect the bears to kick in soon — which would be bullish for crypto.
Medium-term, after breaking above the 4.63% major high marked in blue, the bulls took over on USDT.D, initiating a bearish correction phase for crypto.
For the bears to regain control of USDT.D — and for the crypto market to turn bullish again — a break below the 4.75% major low marked in red is needed.
As per our last roundup article, BTC is still holding firmly above $100,000, demonstrating its strength during times of uncertainty.
This is typical behavior of a safe-haven asset.
For the bulls to take over again on BTC and start the next upward impulse, a break above the last major high marked in blue at $106,300 is needed.
Until then, BTC may still trade lower toward the $100,000 mark, especially if the $104,000 support is broken to the downside.
As per our latest ETH update, it rejected the upper bound of the rising blue channel and moved lower.
Today, it is rejecting the $2,500 support level and round number. As long as this support holds, the only way from here is up.
ETH has been respecting our market structure perfectly.
The chart above speaks for itself. For the bulls to take over and trigger the next major upward impulse within the blue channel, a break above the last major high in orange at $2,590 is needed.
Quotes / Advices
The hard work in trading comes in the preparation. The actual process of trading, however, should be effortless.
~ Jack Schwager – Author of Market Wizards
Closing Remarks
In summary, despite heightened geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel, the crypto market showed resilience, ending the week on a bullish note.
BTC closed up by 0.72% and ETH by over 2%, while the Fear and Greed Index remained in “greed” territory, reflecting market optimism.
The US500 faces resistance around $6,000–$6,150, and DXY, though bearish short-term, is still bullish on a macro scale.
USDT.D is nearing a key resistance at 5%, which could trigger a bullish reversal in crypto. BTC remains strong above $100,000, with a breakout above $106,300 needed for further upside. ETH is holding $2,500 support, with $2,590 as the key breakout level to resume its bullish momentum.
