Welcome to another crypto market outlook for the 11th of May!
The crypto market is having its best week of 2025 so far. Finally, the market is breathing again, with investors more optimistic than ever. Based on previous cycles, April, May, and June are typically bullish months, so be prepared.
Today, we will cover the following topics:
– Market Heatmap and Fear and Greed Index
– US500 and DXY
– USDT.D, Bitcoin and Ethereum Analysis
– Quotes / Advices
– Closing Remarks
Market Heatmap and Fear and Greed Index
It is evident from the crypto heatmap that the overall sentiment has shifted back to bullish, as only a few altcoins recorded a bearish month. Almost every altcoin, sector by sector, is pumping like crazy, with ETH surging by over 50% in one week.
The Fear and Greed Index is still signaling greed. It hasn’t reached extreme greed yet, so more upside can be expected in the upcoming week.
US500 and DXY analysis
As per our last market outlook, the US500 is rejecting a strong structure, resistance, and supply zone around $5,750, making it a critical make-or-break level.
For the bulls to stay in control, a break above the $5,800 mark is needed.
In parallel, if the recent low at $5,555 is broken to the downside, the stock market will likely enter a bearish correction phase to fill the gap on the US500 around $5,300.
After rejecting the $99–$100 support zone, DXY has been bullish over the past week.
As long as this support zone holds, further upside is expected for DXY, which could pose a challenge for the crypto market.
The bulls are gaining strength, especially after breaking above the $100.5 neckline marked in red, as highlighted in last week’s analysis.
As long as the rising orange channel remains intact, DXY’s trend is expected to stay bullish.
USDT.D, Bitcoin, and Ethereum analysis
As mentioned in our last market outlook, if the 5% round number is broken to the downside, altcoin season begins.
This week is a clear example: as USDT.D weakens, the crypto market pumps—and vice versa.
For the crypto market to continue pumping, a break below the 4.4% support level on USDT.D is needed.
Meanwhile, the bulls could still step in to retest the upper bound of the falling orange channel, which aligns perfectly with the 5% resistance level.
As expected in our last roundup article, if BTC breaks above the $88,500 structure, a bullish move toward the ATH zone would be likely.
This week, BTC is hovering around the $107,000–$108,000 all-time high. For the bulls to maintain long-term control and initiate a new macro trend, a break above the green zone is needed.
The bulls will remain in control in the medium term as long as BTC continues to trade within the rising orange channel.
If the recent low at $102,300 is broken to the downside, a short-term bearish correction toward the lower bound of the orange trendline would be expected.
ETH surprised everyone this week by surging over 50% after breaking above the $1,850 level we highlighted last week.
As long as the $2,400 support level holds, a bullish continuation toward the $3,000 round number is expected.
In parallel, if the $2,400 support level is broken to the downside, a bearish correction toward the $2,000–$2,100 zone might be possible.
Quotes / Advices
I think investment psychology is by far the more important element, followed by risk control, with the least important consideration being the question of where you buy and sell.
~ Tom Basso
Closing Remarks
In summary, the crypto market has turned strongly bullish, with most altcoins surging across sectors and ETH leading the rally with a 50% weekly gain.
The Fear and Greed Index still signals greed, suggesting further upside potential. In traditional markets, the US500 is stuck at a key resistance near $5,750, while DXY shows strength, which could pressure crypto if the bullish trend continues.
Meanwhile, USDT.D continues to serve as a key inverse indicator—its drop aligns with the altcoin market pumping. BTC is testing its all-time high zone around $108,000, with bulls needing a break above to confirm a new macro trend.
ETH remains bullish above $2,400, with $3,000 as the next target, but could correct if support fails.
