April Recovery Complete: Is a Crypto Rally Brewing?

April 26, 2025 - 4 min. read

By Sjuul Föllings

Market outlook 26th April.

Welcome to another crypto market outlook for the 26th of April!

With the trade war easing this past week, the crypto market hasn’t been taking a break! It has been surging like there’s no tomorrow, especially with utility tokens. Will this bullish phase last, or will it be short-lived? Let’s find out together.

‍Today, we will cover the following topics:

– Market Heatmap and Fear and Greed Index
– US500 and DXY
– USDT.D, Bitcoin and Ethereum Analysis
– Quotes / Advices
– Closing Remarks

Market Heatmap and Fear and Greed Index

The monthly candle on almost every chart is looking very bullish, with a large wick to the downside, as the crypto market recovered almost the entire dip during April. It’s also evident from the heatmap that the overall momentum has now turned bullish.

7 days crypto heatmap showing overall bullish sentiment.

The Fear and Greed Index has shifted to greed for the first time in months, which is something we’ve all been waiting for. Finally, some optimism is on the horizon.

fear and greed index shifting to greed after months of fear sentiment.
Fear and Greed Index

US500 and DXY analysis

US500 weekly chart overall bullish after rejecting the lower bound of the rising channel.
US500 Chart – Weekly Timeframe

As per our last US500 update, it remains overall bullish after rejecting the $5,000 round number and the lower bound of its rising channel.

As long as the bulls hold, a move toward the $6,000 round number is very possible.

US500 4h chart overall bullish trading within the rising channel.
US500 Chart – 4H Timeframe

Medium-term, the US500 has been bullish, trading within the rising channel marked in red.

As it retests the lower bound of the channel, we will be looking for trend-following longs.

DXY weekly chart rejecting a strong support at $99 - $100.
DXY Chart – Weekly Timeframe

DXY is still struggling within the $99–$100 support zone.

As long as the support holds, the only way from here would be up.

DXY 4h chart hovering within a small range in the shape of an inverse head and shoulders.
DXY Chart – 4H Timeframe

For the bulls to finally take over and defend the $100 support level, a break above the inverse head and shoulders neckline at $100.5 is needed.

USDT.D, Bitcoin, and Ethereum analysis

USDT.D daily chart rejecting a strong support at 5%.
USDT.D Chart – Daily Timeframe

As per our latest USDT.D analysis, it is still rejecting the 5% support, making it challenging for the crypto market to push any higher.

For the bullish movement in crypto to extend, a break below the 5% level is needed.

USDT.D 4h chart overall bearish unless the 5.17% is broken upward.
USDT.D Chart – 4H Timeframe

In parallel, if the last major high at 5.17% is broken upward, a bearish leg would be expected for crypto.

BTC daily hovering within a range between $90,000 and $95,000.
BTC Chart – Daily Timeframe

As per our last roundup article, BTC is still hovering within a make-or-break zone between $90,000 and $95,000.

For the bulls to remain in control, a break above $95,000 is needed. In parallel, if $89,000 is broken downward, a bearish correction toward the $80,000 demand zone would be likely.

BTC 4h chart overall bullish trading within a rising channel.
BTC Chart – 4H Timeframe

Meanwhile, from a medium-term perspective, BTC will remain bullish as long as it continues trading within the rising orange channel.

As BTC retests the lower orange trendline, we will be looking for trend-following longs on lower timeframes.

ETH daily chart approaching a strong rejecting as it is the intersection of two trendlines.
ETH Chart – Daily Timeframe

ETH is approaching a massive rejection zone at the intersection of the two upper trendlines marked in orange and red.

For the bulls to take over long-term, a break above the $2,100 resistance level is needed.

ETH 4h chart overall bullish trading within a rising channel.
ETH Chart – 4H Timeframe

Short-term, as ETH approaches the lower orange trendline and the $1,670 structure, we will be looking for trend-following longs.

Quotes / Advices

Limit your size in any position so that fear does not become the prevailing instinct guiding your judgment.
~ Joe Vidich

Closing Remarks

In summary, the crypto market has regained strong bullish momentum, with monthly candles showing significant recoveries and the Fear and Greed Index shifting to greed for the first time in months.

US500 remains bullish above $5,000, aiming for $6,000, while DXY struggles around its key $99–$100 support zone. A breakout above $100.5 would favor dollar strength.

Meanwhile, USDT.D is holding above 5%, capping crypto’s rally for now.

Bitcoin continues to hover between $90,000 and $95,000, with key breakouts setting the next trend direction.

Ethereum is approaching major resistance, but as long as short-term supports hold, the bias for trend-following longs remains intact.

Sjuul Föllings

Sjuul achieved financial independence through years of immersion in cryptocurrency. Starting in 2016, he faced..

Sjuul Föllings